At the center of the recent slowdown in crude oil prices, Washington’s moves on the international geopolitical chessboard, the confrontation with OPEC and the movements of constant rapprochement between Russia and China
The main reasons for the rise in oil prices are the collapse of Lybia’s and Venezuela’s output along with the economic measures imposed against Iranian crude exports. Looking at country data, China and India are still the key drivers
Price increases had three major drivers: the collapse of Iranian exports, the decrease in US stocks and the depreciation of the dollar
As oil prices fall, global demand is expected to grow. Asia is driving the increase in demand thanks to the estimated 900,000 b/d
In addition to the positive trend, the Vienna agreement has allowed Russia and Saudi Arabia to achieve two fundamental objectives: higher production and consequently higher income
Among the main factors driving the recent price increases, many geo-political developments, such as the new US sanctions against Teheran, the decrease in American stocks and the case of Venezuela
In April, oil prices strongly increased in the wake of the OPEC/non-OPEC deal cuts. Certainly, the rebalancing of the oil market is close to be achieved
The factors which have led to the recovery include the sudden drop in US crude stocks and the resumption of US sanctions against Iran, further strengthened by the appointment of John Bolton, who has previously declared himself opposed to the nuclear deal
The downward trend in oil prices seen in recent months reflects the development of shale in the United States, a evolving situation within the sector that for the time being is not a source of concern to OPEC countries, which are currently engaged in complying with the agreed output cuts
During the first month of 2018, oil prices increased as OPEC and non-OPEC producers respected the cuts
