Economic preview for the coming year

First macro-economic framework for 2016 from the data released by the President Putin and the president of Sbrebank, Gref
Economic preview for the coming year
05 January 10:15 2016 Print This Article

Economic and financial state of the Russian Federation for 2016 suggest future stabilization of some economic and social indicators, for instance, the industry has shown some signs of recovery, the labor market is stable, the trade balance is positive and the foreign debt decreased by 13% during 2015. The outflow of capital has significantly dropped and indeed, last months have revealed the net inflow of capital. The liabilities of the federal budget in 2015 do not exceed 2.8 – 2.9% of the GDP. The sovereign funds amounts to 11.8% of GDP, exceeding 8.6 trillion rubles. This is the scenario outlined by the President Vladimir Putin.

The president of Sberbank, Gherman Gref, instead states that the exit from the recession is not previewed in the Agenda 2016 and the coming year will be a year of “continuation of the crisis.” State purchases that has increased in 2015 by 16% will continue to rise in 2016 and their costs will grow further by more than 25% to about 18 trillion rubles. Over 17 million people or 20% of the working population will remain officially “non-employed”. Some industrial indicators has recorded very worrying contractions: footwear production fall by 16%, production of television – by 45%, while the market of gold  and silver contracted by one-third.

Therefore, 2016 will be characterized by factors and indices as diverse as contrasting. The economist and university professor Aleksandr Ausan revealed that in 2015 the population has accumulated (“put under mattresses”) 31.000 billion rubles, three times the federal reserves (9.6 trillion rubles).

In 2016, to counter this phenomenon, the Ministry of Finance will release states bonds to foster greater circulation of money and the development of the economy.

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Cecilia Valentini
Cecilia Valentini

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