Russian Development Ministry worsened (again) GDP growth for 2017-2019

Ministry’s adjusted 2017–2019 social and macroeconomic development forecast sees GDP growing 0.2-1.9%
Russian Development Ministry worsened (again) GDP growth for 2017-2019
12 October 11:16 2016 Print This Article

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry worsened again the forecast for country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In the following three years Russian economy will grow slower than expected. According to ministry’s adjusted 2017–2019 social and macroeconomic development forecast, GDP may grow by 0.2% in 2017 instead of 0,6% stated in the ministry’s development forecasts in September, by 0.9% in 2018 instead of previously stated 1,7%, and by 1.2% in 2019 instead of 2,1%.

In 2016, the ministry expects GDP contraction at 0.6%.

The document is based on a baseline forecast, according to which an average annual price for Urals oil will stay at USD41 per barrel in 2016, and at USD40 per barrel in 2017–2019.

In its baseline scenario, the ministry also assumes that the average annual ruble rate against the U.S. dollar will amount to 67.5 rubles in 2017, to 68.7 rubles in 2018, and to 71.1 rubles in 2019. Back in September, the ministry based its forecasts on different numbers — 65 rubles in 2017 and 2018 and 64 rubles in 2019.

The ministry’s so-called “baseline plus” (optimistic) scenario sees the Urals oil price growing to USD48 per barrel in 2017, to USD52 in 2018, and to USD55 in 2019; while the ruble is seen at 63.3 rubles per U.S. dollar in 2017, at 62.1 rubles in 2018 and at 61.3 rubles in 2019.

 

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