World Bank forecasts Kazakhstan’s growth to 3.5 percent in 2019

A growth slowdown could decrease outward remittances from Russia and Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
World Bank forecasts Kazakhstan’s growth to 3.5 percent in 2019
21 January 10:25 2019 Print This Article

The growth rate of Kazakhstan’s economy will decrease to 3.5 percent this year as oil production growth levels off and further fiscal consolidation efforts continue.   Regional growth is expected to slow in 2019,” World Bank lead economist for Central Asia Julio Revilla said.

Activity in Europe and Central Asia is estimated to have slowed to 3.1 percent in 2018, reflecting weakness in Turkey in the second half of the year. Russia and other oil exporters maintained steady growth in 2018 as oil prices rose. Higher than expected oil production supported Kazakhstan’s 3.8-percent growth rate.

Turkey is forecast to experience weak activity and slow to a 1.6-percent pace due to high inflation, growth in the eastern part of the region is also anticipated to slow as large economies including Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine decelerate.

Tensions concerning Syria or Ukraine could trigger new sanctions on Russia affecting Central Asia and an escalation of trade restrictions could have a negative impact on the region, as the Euro area and China are the largest trading partners for all countries in the region.

“Also, a growth slowdown could decrease outward remittances from Russia and Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as they have particularly benefited from those economies.

“To reverse the current trend of productivity stagnation, the government should put forward and must be committed to decisive structural reforms to unleash the sheltered potential of the genuine private sector,”  said Revilla.

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